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Bitcoin Came THIS Close to Breaking Down: $97K Next?

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· based on the channel Gareth Soloway

Bitcoin came within a few hundred dollars of a major breakdown, flushing to about $79,750 before buyers pushed price back above the $81,000 support line. The takeaway for anyone trading crypto right now is that $81,000 and $87,200 are the two levels that define the next move: a daily close above $87,200 opens a path toward $95,000-$97,000, while a daily close below $81,000 opens $75,500 and then the $67,000 zone. Gareth Soloway lays out that game plan chart by chart, and traders who want tier-one fee pricing on the exchange he uses can sign up through the Coinbase referral link.

Why Bitcoin keeps holding while the AI trade slides

Bitcoin has been hanging in there even as the AI trade and the Nasdaq have been sliding, and that relative strength is the core of the bullish case. The structure stays intact as long as price keeps reclaiming $81,000 after each test, and the market has now hammered that line more than once. Soloway's read is that the cycle low remains in place until proven otherwise — the burden of proof sits with the bears, not the bulls.

At the same time, he holds no swing position in Bitcoin, long or short, while price sits inside a range of roughly $6,000 between the two key levels. That is not a contradiction: a range of that width offers poor reward relative to risk in the middle, and the edge only appears at the edges. Sitting flat inside a range is a position in itself.

The three upside factors converging at $95,000-$97,000

Above $87,200, three independent technical factors line up in the $95,000 to $97,000 area, which is why that band matters more than any single indicator. Each one is worth tracking on its own:

  1. Rising trend line near $91,000. A trend line drawn from the lows is climbing toward the low $90,000s and, because it rises over time, it could carry that target into late November rather than requiring an immediate move.
  2. Measured move off the consolidation. Projecting the height of the recent range out of the top of that range produces a target around $96,000 to $97,000.
  3. Prior pivot highs. The old swing highs sit in the same $95,000-$97,000 zone, confirming the confluence rather than contradicting it.

Three separate methods pointing at one price band is what traders call confluence, and it is the reason the upside case only counts once Bitcoin closes a daily candle above $87,200. Below that level, the targets are theory; above it, they become a tradeable map.

The bear case: $81,000, then $75,500 and $67,000

The downside plan is written in advance so that a losing day does not turn into an emotional decision. A daily close below $81,000 opens $75,500, and that is where Soloway would buy only 25% of a position — a starter size, not a full commitment. The remaining 75% is reserved for the $67,000 zone, where he plans to load the rest.

That split is a risk-management choice, not a prediction. If $75,500 holds, the small starter position participates in the bounce; if it fails and price slides toward $67,000, there is still capital left to buy the deeper discount. The question he addressed directly, in response to being asked whether he would go all in at $75,500, is that going all in at a single level removes exactly the flexibility that makes a plan useful.

Ethereum and HBAR: the altcoin setups in play

Ethereum is trading in a range with two clear reference points: a heavy buy zone just below $2,000 and a $2,800 retest if price breaks out. The sub-$2,000 area is where demand has previously appeared, which makes it the level to watch for accumulation rather than the middle of the range. A breakout that carries ETH back to $2,800 would confirm the range resolving to the upside.

HBAR offered a swing trade setup shared with Smart Money Crypto members: a retrace to the scene of the crime — the level where price previously broke down or reversed — with a target near $0.10. The pattern is a familiar one in altcoins: wait for price to return to the origin of a sharp move, enter on the retrace, and define the target at the next obvious liquidity level. Altcoin trades like this one depend on Bitcoin holding its own support; if BTC loses $81,000 on a daily close, correlations tend to drag the rest of the market down with it.

Common questions traders ask about this setup

Viewers of the breakdown raised several recurring concerns, and they are worth answering directly because they shape how the plan gets executed.

"No Bitcoin position at all?" Yes — inside a $6,000 range, the middle of the range is where whipsaws happen. The plan waits for $87,200 on the upside or $75,500 and $67,000 on the downside.

"How do you short crypto on an exchange like Coinbase?" Spot platforms are built for buying and selling the asset itself; short exposure normally requires derivatives or margin products, which carry their own liquidation and funding risks. The levels in this plan work as exit and entry markers for spot positioning regardless.

"Isn't the exchange too expensive in fees and spread?" That is the most common complaint, and it is why the referral offer focuses on tier-one fee pricing, including for accounts that have been idle for 30 days or that originally joined under someone else's link.

"I don't know enough to have a game plan." A game plan can be as simple as two numbers: the level that proves you wrong and the level where you take profit. Writing both down before entering is what keeps emotion out of the trade.

Bottom line

The crypto market right now is a two-level story: $81,000 on the downside and $87,200 on the upside, with a $95,000-$97,000 confluence waiting above and buy zones at $75,500 and $67,000 below. Bitcoin's ability to reclaim $81,000 after a flush to $79,750 keeps the bullish structure intact, but the middle of the range is where discipline matters more than conviction. Ethereum's sub-$2,000 zone and $2,800 retest, along with the HBAR swing trade toward $0.10, give altcoin traders their own reference points. The analysis comes from Gareth Soloway, whose channel pairs each target with the level that invalidates it — the habit that separates a plan from a guess. Traders who want to act on those levels can start with tier-one fee pricing through the Coinbase offer.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin flushed to roughly $79,750 before closing back above the $81,000 support line.
  • A daily close above $87,200 activates three upside factors converging near $95,000-$97,000.
  • A daily close below $81,000 opens $75,500, where only 25% of a position would be bought.
  • The rest of the buy plan sits in the $67,000 zone; the cycle low is treated as intact until proven otherwise.
  • Ethereum's heavy buy zone is just below $2,000, with a $2,800 retest on a breakout; HBAR swing target near $0.10.

Questions & answers

What are the key Bitcoin levels to watch right now?

The two levels that define the range are $81,000 on the downside and $87,200 on the upside. A daily close above $87,200 activates targets near $95,000-$97,000, while a daily close below $81,000 opens $75,500 and then $67,000.

Why would a trader hold no Bitcoin position inside this range?

The range is roughly $6,000 wide, so entering in the middle leaves little room between entry and invalidation. Waiting for the edges — a confirmed break above $87,200 or a drop into $75,500 or $67,000 — improves reward relative to risk and avoids whipsaw.

How should a buy plan be sized at $75,500 and $67,000?

The approach is to buy only about 25% at $75,500 as a starter position and reserve the remaining 75% for the $67,000 zone. That way a failed bounce at $75,500 still leaves capital to buy a deeper discount.

What are the Ethereum and HBAR setups?

Ethereum has a heavy buy zone just below $2,000 and a $2,800 retest if it breaks out of its range. HBAR was a swing trade taken on a retrace to the scene of the crime, with a target near $0.10.

Source: Bitcoin Came THIS Close to Breaking Down: $97K Next? · Markdown version

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